2023-06-20 • Updated
The possibility of a US recession has ignited intense debates, especially as the labor market and consumer spending continue to demonstrate resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes. However, hold on to your hats because Deutsche Bank is bringing a bold statement. They see a 100% probability of a US recession unfolding. The fed funds rate is currently at its highest level since 2006, but inflation still persists above the Fed's desired goal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that more rate hikes may be necessary to tackle this stubborn inflation. However, here's where it gets interesting: David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, believes that while further rate increases may bring inflation down, the price we might have to pay is a full-blown recession. In fact, he suggests that the US is on the verge of experiencing its first policy-induced boom-bust cycle in decades, with the inflationary effects of expansive fiscal and monetary policies finally catching up. Buckle up, folks, because it would truly be a historical anomaly if we manage to avoid a hard landing. Stay vigilant, forex traders, as these dynamics unfold before our eyes.
At the moment, we’re seeing the likely onset of bullish price action from the US Dollar based on the candlestick formation within the demand zone. The confluences I have for this trade include;
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 102.218
Invalidation: 103.0
The bullish impulse is weakening, as we can see from the price action at the supply zone. Correlating this EURUSD price action with what we saw earlier on the US Dollar chart indicates, to a large degree, the likelihood of a bearish retracement. On this note, I expect to see the bearish movement slide toward the trendline support before we get to see a bullish continuation.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.08238
Invalidation: 1.10092
GBPUSD has reached a crucial resistance level after commencing a solid rally from the 100-Day moving average, which on a regular day would imply a possibility of a bearish movement. The current price action indicates an attenuation that often symbolizes a rejection from a support or resistance area. The correlation of this price action with that on the daily timeframe of the US Dollar chart reinforces my bias.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.26657
Invalidation: 1.28523
AUDUSD made a solid rejection from the convergence point of the two resistance trend lines and could be heading toward the 100-Day moving average for support.
The confluences for this position include;
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 0.67323
Invalidation: 0.68483
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel. (hyperlink)
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.
Your request is accepted.
A manager will call you shortly.
Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in
If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat
Internal error. Please try again later
Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
|
